The Tigers became his team and baseball his sport. government. Silver responded with the offer of a $1,000 wager (for charity) over the outcome of the election. But after that [Silver's and the website's popularity] started to really take off. See how the race is shaping up in individual states, or watch, Congrats, you made it to the bottom! I saw a lot of discussion about strategy that was not all that sophisticated, especially when it came to quantitative things like polls and demographics'". For those sins (and a multitude of others that I'm sure I don't even know about), I am sorry. In November 2009, ESPN introduced a new Soccer Power Index (SPi),[51] designed by Nate Silver, for predicting the outcome of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. ", "And the winner is Live analysis of the foreign policy debate", "ORCA, Mitt Romney's high-tech get-out-the-vote program, crashed on Election Day", "Why Romney's Orca killer app beached on Election Day", "For Romney, All His Career Options Are Still Open. [73], Romney was initially declared the narrow winner of the Maine Caucus, but the results were subject to a recount after several counties were not counted. (emphasis in original), Two days later, on October 27, Romney began airing a television ad in Ohio that said, "Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy, and sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China. [42], Shortly after the November 4 election, ESPN writer Jim Caple observed, "Forget Cole Hamels and the Phillies. Silver has been criticized for inaccurate predictions. [36] His forecasts of the 2008 United States presidential primary elections drew a lot of attention, including being cited by The New York Times op-ed columnist William Kristol. [16][17] Silver's mother's family, of English and German descent, includes several distinguished men and women, including his maternal great-grandfather, Harmon Lewis, who was president of the Alcoa Steamship Company, Inc.[18] Silver's father's family includes two unclesLeon Silver and Caswell Silverwho were distinguished geologists. ", "Final Election Update: There's A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton", Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else, "Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight proves its worth with another close election prediction", Nate Silver Is Unskewing Polls All Of Them In Trump's Direction, "FiveThirtyHate? [211], For their 2011 tax returns, the Romneys paid nearly $2 million in taxes on an income of $13.7 million for an effective tax rate of 14.1%. [231] Some conservative Republicans, such as Erick Erickson and Rush Limbaugh, defended Romney's 47% remark. Unlike most other such systems, PECOTA also calculates a range of probable performance levels rather than a single predicted value on a given measure such as earned run average or batting average. So there's obviously something there that compromises what he said in the past about something. The mixed signals from Thompson and Abramsonhis lack of enthusiasm for committing resources to Silver, her desire to keep a major starfrustrated Silver and his lawyer. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. The chances that these situations willcropup. [61], In an online chat session a week after the 2012 election Silver commented: "As tempting as it might be to pull a Jim Brown/Sandy Koufax and just mic-drop/retire from elections forecasting, I expect that we'll be making forecasts in 2014 and 2016. It featured appearances by Ann Romney, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Clint Eastwood, and Mitt Romney. Stephanie Clifford, "Finding Fame With a Prescient Call for Obama". Leavitt, along with Beth Myers and Bob White, had formed a list of ten candidates for each Cabinet position to aid Romney in making appointments to those positions. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. [81], Silver published the first iteration of his 2012 general election forecasts on June 7, 2012. During the final weeks of the campaign, the Romney campaign began to promote the idea that as a result of the Obama Administration's bailout of the automotive industry, U.S.-based auto manufacturing jobs would be outsourced to China. [120][121] The Palestinian Authority and other Palestinian organizations denounced Romney's remarks about the political status of Jerusalem, which they hope will become the capital of a future Palestinian state, as well as Romney's refusal to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (he met instead with PA Prime Minister Salam Fayyad). May 25, 2014: Silver received a Doctorate of Humane Letters, May 2017: Georgetown University awarded Silver a degree of Doctor of Humane Letters. After the 2008 election, Romney built a strategy for the 2012 presidential campaign and saved PAC money to underwrite salaries and consulting fees for his existing political staff[16] and to build up a political infrastructure for what might become a $1 billion campaign three years hence. Several polls showed Romney having a slight lead over Gingrich in South Carolina. A GM representative denounced the Romney ad, saying, "We've clearly entered some parallel universe during these last few days. No amount of campaign politics at its cynical worst will diminish our record of creating jobs in the U.S. and repatriating profits back to this country. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. As reported in New York magazine: " 'I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil,' he says. This page was last edited on 30 November 2022, at 23:14. Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere. Andrea Mitchell claimed that his apparent enthusiasm belied that he might be out of touch with many Americans who would eat at a restaurant like Wawa's very regularly. [111], Silver's self-unmasking at the end of May 2008 brought him a lot of publicity focused on his combined skill as both baseball statistician-forecaster and political statistician-forecaster, including articles about him in The Wall Street Journal,[112] Newsweek,[113] Science News,[114][115] and his hometown Lansing State Journal. [82] However, polls (both nationally and in battleground states like Florida and Ohio) also showed that for most of those who said they would vote for Romney, the primary motivator was hostility toward Obama rather than affirmative support for Romney. Eric Lundquist, "Nate Silver's Big Data Lessons For The Enterprise". Plus, he has his Baseball Prospectus duties. [108][109][110][111], In London, his comments in an NBC interview in which he referred to "disconcerting stories" over security concerns regarding readiness of the London 2012 Olympic Games were widely viewed as undiplomatic by the British press and leading politicians. "Romney's senior strategist, Stuart Stevens, may well be remembered by historians . [35] Silver set out to analyze quantitative aspects of the political game to enlighten a broader audience. Luc Vander Elst, "Honorary doctorate for Nate Silver, the man who made statistics cool", KU Leuven. He is a great-grandson of Harmon Lewis, the President of Alcoa Steamship Company,[154] as well as a great-great-nephew of the embryologist Warren Harmon Lewis and his wife, biologist Margaret Reed Lewis. While Cameron's aides stated he didn't intend a jibe at Romney or Salt Lake City, the British press seized upon the "middle of nowhere" remark, construing it as an allusion to Utah where Romney had managed the Olympics in 2002. [21], As a student at East Lansing High School, in 1996 Silver won first place in the State of Michigan in the 49th annual John S. Knight Scholarship Contest for senior high school debaters. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. [212][213] The summary prepared by PwC stated the Romney's effective tax rate paid had averaged 20.2% from 1990 to 2009. [52], The weekend ahead of the New Hampshire primary on January 10, Romney participated in two debates, which Reuters said Romney "weathered well." The article stated that "the major reason Silver left was because he felt it was Thompson who had not committed to building his franchise. ", "Mitt Romney Inc.: The White House That Never Was", "Blueprint outlines work former Utah Gov. We call this the snake chart! DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) The Hy-Vee Hall ballroom in Des Moines erupted in cheers in 2008 when the youthful Illinois senator hinted at the improbable possibility of the feat ahead: Our time for change has come! Big day at World Cup looms for France, Poland goalkeepers. [57] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as state gubernatorial contests. [282][283] These included "landing"[281] teams to be deployed to governmental agencies two weeks post-election and "beachhead"[281] teams to guide the transition following Romney's would-be inauguration on January 20. "[230] Several Republicans campaigning for seats in the 2012 election disputed or criticized Romney's remarks, including Senate candidates Linda McMahon (CT), George Allen (VA), Sen. Dean Heller (NV), Sen. Scott Brown (MA), and Gov. Romney won 50% of the caucus-goers, followed by Gingrich at 21%, Paul at 19%, and Santorum at 10%. [82], On the morning of the November 6, 2012, presidential election, the final update of Silver's model at 10:10 A.M. gave President Barack Obama a 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. [42], By April 2012 Romney's financial supporters included Julian Robertson of Tiger Management, Louis Moore Bacon of Moore Capital Management, John Paulson of Paulson & Co., Steven Allen Schwarzman, of The Blackstone Group and Paul Singer of Elliott Management Corporation. "[156] When asked in 2008 if he had noticed people looking at him as a "gay icon", he responded, "I've started to notice it a little bit, although so far it seems like I'm more a subject of geek affection than gay affection". The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. [19], Before a slower start to the presidential campaign by all contenders than four years previous, on April 11, 2011, Mitt Romney announced by means of a video recorded that day at an athletics field at the University of New Hampshire that he had formed an exploratory committee as a first step for a potential run for a Republican presidential campaign, saying, "It is time that we put America back on a course of greatness, with a growing economy, good jobs and fiscal discipline in Washington. [90], The general election campaign began in earnest on Labor Day, September 3, 2012. He also discussed foreign policy regarding Iran with Israeli opposition Leader Shaul Mofaz. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. Less than 33,000 Republicans took part in the Nevada caucuses, which proportionally awards 28 Republican delegates. ", "Does Obamas Plan Gut Welfare Reform? Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis; Silver argues that many of these are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles. "[100], Considerable criticism during the 2012 elections came from political conservatives, who argued that Silver's election projections were politically biased against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate for president. This fall, visits to the Times' political coverage (including FiveThirtyEight) have increased, both absolutely and as a percentage of site visits. During the last year of FiveThirtyEight's license to The New York Times, it drew a very large volume of online traffic to the paper: The Times does not release traffic figures, but a spokesperson said yesterday that Silver's blog provided a significantand significantly growing, over the past yearpercentage of Times pageviews. The Internet didn't get invented on its own. [206], Republicans who urged Romney to release his tax returns include former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour, Michael Steele and Bill Kristol. "Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com". Nate Silver and Walter Hickey, "Best Picture Math". Find the latest U.S. news stories, photos, and videos on NBCNews.com. As a reviewer in The New York Times notes: "It's largely about evaluating predictions in a variety of fields, from finance to weather to epidemiology. Microsoft pleaded for its deal on the day of the Phase 2 decision last month, but now the gloves are well and truly off. And in four [years], he might be even more macro, as he turns his forecasting talents to other fields. Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage. [40], Romney was also supported by the Super PAC called Restore Our Future. 2016 Election Forecast. [71], Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, missing only the prediction for Indiana. But FiveThirtyEight's growth is staggering: where earlier this year, somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of politics visits included a stop at FiveThirtyEight, last week that figure was 71 percent. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. Stay in the know with the latest Pittsburgh news, weather and sports. Later, Washington held their state GOP convention June 2, 2012 giving Romney at least 34 delegates for the Republican National Convention. Silver responded, "Spending four years of my life at a job I didn't like". [44], Silver was invited to be a speaker at TED 2009 in February 2009,[45] and keynote speaker at the 2009 South by Southwest (SXSW) Interactive conference (March 2009). On September 11, 2012, the U.S. embassy in Cairo, anticipating possible unrest over an anti-Muslim film that had allegedly been produced in the United States, released statements denouncing "the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims" and calling respect for religious beliefs of others "a cornerstone of American democracy. [25] While employed at KPMG, Silver continued to nurture his lifelong interest in baseball and statistics, and on the side he began to work on his PECOTA system for projecting player performance and careers. Romney won the Michigan primary narrowly, and won the Arizona primary by a wide margin. [71], The Nevada Republican caucuses were held on Saturday, February 4. [43], Romney's foreign policy special advisors were drawn largely from the previous Republican administration. There are a lot of smart people out there. On their final prediction election day of the 2020 United States presidential election, FiveThirtyEight predicted that Joe Biden had an 89% chance of winning the election;[98] he did. In the edited version, Romney says how amazing ordering a sandwich with a touch screen device at a Wawa convenience store is. [103], On MSNBC's Morning Joe, host Joe Scarborough stated that Silver's prediction that day of a 73.6% chance of a win for Obama greatly exceeded the confidence of the Obama campaign itself, which Scarborough equated to that of the Romney campaign, both believing "they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning", and calling Silver an "ideologue" and a "joke". [19], Romney finished first in the CPAC straw poll in 2009[20] and second in 2010 and 2011,[21][22] won the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in 2010,[23] and won the New Hampshire Straw Poll in 2011. They know they didn't look, if you've been successful, you didn't get there on your own. While Romney's overall polling gains from the GOP convention were modest, the convention did improve his "likability" rating, even though he continued to trail Obama in this widely considered "critical" category. But, you know, we pay for those things. Nate Silver, "Is Obama Toast? "[66] Later, Sullivan wrote in The Times that "I don't feel so good about not being able to investigate every complaint from every individual reader fully, or about making some misjudgments in individual posts my Nate Silver commentary, among others, has probably been off-base". Nate Silver's predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. [12] The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight launched on March 17, 2014. It's not like government just provides those to all of us and we say, "Oh, thank you government for doing those things." Many[who?] Derek Wallbank, "E. L. native's predictions pitch politics a curveball: Applying baseball stats analysis creates buzz around 30-year-old". Blogger Taegan Goddard took screenshots[278] of the site while it was live, showing pages linked from the front page headed "The President-Elect" (with details about "The Inauguration"), "Believe in America", "Newsroom", and "Join the Administration". According to the model, at that time Barack Obama was projected to win 291 electoral votes21 more than the 270 required for a majority. The first diary was titled, "HRC [Hillary Roddam Clinton] Electability in Purple States. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day. Sean Redmond, "Numerical Order: Famed Statistician Nate Silver Discusses the Future of His Near-Flawless Forecasts". Unlike most other baseball projection systems, PECOTA relies on matching a given current player to a set of "comparable" players whose past performance can serve as a guide to how the given current player is likely to perform in the future. [92][93] Romney took a leave of absence from Bain Capital in February 1999 to manage the Salt Lake City Olympics. [61][62] During debates in Myrtle Beach and Charleston, Romney came in second place in the primary with 28% of the vote, behind Newt Gingrich with 40% of the vote, but ahead of Rick Santorum (17%) and Ron Paul (13%). Nate Silver, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama". See, most notably, Mark Blumenthal, "The Poblano Model". [24], Romney released his 2010 tax return in early January 2012, along with a partial 2011 return which he promised to release in whole upon its completion. The destination for all NFL-related videos. At the end of its four-month tenure, Little Face Mitt had also been covered in The Huffington Post,[195] Complex magazine,[196] Mashable,[197] Boing Boing[198] and many local print publications and online news websites. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. [83] Both in summary tables and in an electoral map, Silver forecast the winner of each state. [249][250][251] Bloomberg News had reported on October 21 that Fiat, the majority owner of Chrysler (the maker of Jeeps), was considering restarting production lines in China that had been idle since 2009. A Microsoft 365 subscription offers an ad-free interface, custom domains, enhanced security options, the full desktop version of By the end of June, Romney's campaign raised $18.5 million, which was $14 million more than U.S. Representative Ron Paul, who came 2nd in funding amongst Republican He also wrote for the Chicago Weekly News and the Chicago Maroon. [3], On November 1, 2007, while still employed by Baseball Prospectus, Silver began publishing a diary under the pseudonym "Poblano" on the progressive political blog Daily Kos. [7] In 2020, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted Joe Biden's victory in the election, forecasting 48 out of 50 states correctly. [184], Mitt Romney explained the words of his advisor by saying, "A general election campaign takes on a different profile. The vetting team, led by experienced Republican operative Beth Myers, gave each member of the short list a fish-themed nickname: "Lakefish" for Minnesotan Pawlenty, "Pescado" for Hispanic Rubio, "Filet-O-Fish" for Ohioan Portman, "Fishconsin" for Janesville native Ryan, and finally "Pufferfish" for the stout Christie. So he'll be out there talking about tax cuts for the rich. Newt Gingrich aired an anti-Romney attack ad that featured the story,[180][181] while Rick Santorum stated it was relevant as an issue of character. Somebody else made that happen. He spent his third year at the London School of Economics. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trumps support is why he still has a path to win reelection. In March 2009, he stepped down as Managing Partner of Baseball Prospectus and handed over responsibility for producing future PECOTA projections to other Baseball Prospectus staff members. [265] During the second debate, Romney was perceived to have struggled compared to his previous performance. Dont count the underdog out! [24], After college graduation in 2000, Silver worked for three and a half years as a transfer pricing consultant with KPMG in Chicago. [94] This discrepancy was reported by The Boston Globe in July 2012[95] and used by Obama[96] and his campaign in its ads that Romney was responsible for the activities of Bain Capital during that period, from 1999 to 2002. [112][113][114] British Prime Minister David Cameron defended the Olympic security preparations: "We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest most active bustling cities anywhere in the world. Handicapping the 2012 Election". Nate Silver, "For Griffey, the Roads Not Taken". [203] The International Business Times[204] credited Little Face Mitt and its images as being one of the best political memes ever and described its notoriety as a "foray into the internet's lexicon" for Mitt Romney, and as "immortality". 1 best nonfiction book of 2012. [76] CNN moderated a Republican primary debate in Mesa, Arizona on February 22, 2012. "[132] Romney also thanked the Polish people for supporting the U.S. in many conflicts. [179], In 2007, the Boston Globe reported that, in 1983, Romney transported his pet dog Seamus on the roof of their automobile. Looking for the national forecast? States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. But Silver's blog has buoyed more than just the politics coverage, becoming a significant traffic-driver for the site as a whole. [131], That Silver accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential race, in the face of numerous public attacks on his forecasts by critics, inspired many articles in the press, ranging from Gizmodo,[132] to online and mainstream newspapers,[133] news and commentary magazines,[134] business media,[135] trade journals,[136] media about media,[137] and Scientific American,[138] as well as a feature interview on The Today Show,[139] a return appearance on The Daily Show,[140] and an appearance on Morning Joe[141], Silver's first appearance on ABC News as Editor-in-Chief of the new FiveThirtyEight.com was on George Stephanopoulos's This Week on November 3, 2013. Ryan would have been the first vice president from Wisconsin. Obama then had an estimated 61.8% chance of winning a majority. [76], Although throughout 2011 Silver devoted a lot of attention on his blog to the 2012 Republican party primaries, his first effort to handicap the 2012 Presidential general election appeared as the cover story in The New York Times Magazine a year prior to the election: "Is Obama Toast? News. [4] In the 2012 United States presidential election, the forecasting system correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [115][116], In Jerusalem, Romney discussed the possibility of a military strike against Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres. [54], On June 3, 2010, Silver announced on FiveThirtyEight, In the near future, the blog will "re-launch" under a NYTimes.com domain. [18][19], Silver showed a proficiency in math from a young age. He made a big effort on small things. Get breaking news stories and in-depth coverage with videos and photos. However, while FiveThirtyEight viewed the actual results as a plausible scenario, it significantly overestimated Biden's margins in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.[8][9]. "[168], By the following day, it had been confirmed that the U.S. ambassador to Libya had been one of several Americans killed in the Benghazi attack. His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported confidence interval. According to The New York Times, when the Obama camp put material on television that made "no effort to put any of Mr. Romney's statements into context", the Romney campaign responded by saying that Obama was trying to distract Americans from real issues such as high unemployment. According to The Boston Globe, "Romney aides even said they were proud of the reaction and suggested that the ad was deliberately misleading to garner attention." "Nate Silver and the Trials of a Forecaster". [80] This story painted a more optimistic picture of President Obama's re-election chances. Clickme! [172], The Romney campaign defended the ad. Review of two children's books, with an autobiographical comment: "Beautiful Minds: In addition to chapters in several issues of the, May 12, 2013: Silver received an honorary, May 24, 2013: Silver received an honorary. Six years later, in November 2018, Romney was elected as U.S. Nate Silver, "Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage". [158], Silver has long been interested in fantasy baseball, especially Scoresheet Baseball. Its catchphrases were "Smaller, Simpler, Smarter" over "Believe in America". Mitt Romney was one of many competing for the role of Republican nominee for president. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas politics, economics, science, life and sports. Stay on top of the news all day with the Tribunes web notifications. [175], In July and August 2012, Romney ran a recurring ad claiming that President Obama wanted to remove the work requirement for welfare recipients. [117] Also, Rasmussen Reports began to use the FiveThirtyEight.com poll averages for its own tracking of the 2008 state-by-state races. [133] When American journalists tried to question Romney during a visit to Warsaw's Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, his campaign spokesman told journalists: "Kiss my ass. [79], While publishing numerous stories on the Republican primary elections, in mid-February 2012 Silver reprised and updated his previous Magazine story with another one, "What Obama Should Do Next". Nate Silver, "FiveThirtyEight to Partner with New York Times". [281] The transition planning effort was divided into four segments, two of which were executed: the "readiness phase," which lasted from June until the 2012 Republican National Convention and the "planning phase," which lasted from the convention until election day. [236][237], Several commentators noted that 47% was also Romney's share of the popular vote (rounded to the nearest percentage point),[238][239][240][241] a result some considered ironic. Have. The poll is traditionally considered an important barometer of the sentiments of conservative activists. ", Fact checking organization Politifact gave the Romney campaign a "pants on fire" rating for "distorting Obama's words, which have been taken out of context in a ridiculously misleading way,"[174] while another fact-checking organization, FactCheck.org, declined to assess whether that particular clip in the Romney ad was misleading, and instead said: "We won't quibble with the spot's main message, which is that Obama has failed to fix the economy. In December 2010 he asked his immediate family to vote on a 2012 campaign. Tarun Wadhwa, "Nate Silver and the Rise of Political Data Science". See Margaret Sullivan, "A Year in the Life of a Watchdog". [41], In an article about 2016 Presidential election fundraiser Mary Pat Bonner, 2012 campaign finance chair Zwick was mentioned in regards "fund-raising fees paid by Mr. Romney's [2012] campaign committees to limited liability companies established by Mr. Zwick: about $34 million, according to campaign disclosure reports". [138], Romney accepted an invitation[139] to address the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) on July 11, 2012. George Will said "The cost of not releasing the returns are clear. It's insulting to every entrepreneur, every innovator in America. Glaser was also interviewed by the Washington Examiner,[199] The New York Times, The Daily Dot,[200] The Young Turks[201] and in articles from as far away as France[202] and Germany. [48] Politico reported that the Romney campaign bought CPAC registration tickets to the conference, while the Santorum campaign did not. It reached the New York Times Best Sellers List as #12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first week in print. After resigning from KPMG in 2004, he took the position of Executive Vice-President, later renamed Managing Partner of BP. Obama Rips Herschel Walker: We All Know People That Say Crazy Stuff, Like "Uncle Joe," But Don't Give Them Serious Responsibilities Read breaking headlines covering politics, economics, pop culture, and more. Regarding government infrastructure and support, Romney stated: You really couldn't have a business if you didn't have those things. C-SPAN.org gives you access to C-SPAN's daily coverage of Washington and more than 200,000 hours of extensively indexed and archived C-SPAN video. Who missed big? Senator from Utah. [97][102][103], In June 2012, former President Bill Clinton said that Romney, in having served as governor and having had a "sterling business career," met the basic qualifications to perform the essential functions of the presidency. [23], In 2000, Silver graduated with Honors with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of Chicago. [citation needed] The New York Times wrote that the Romney campaign was busing in students from along the East Coast to support Romney. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. After the attack the U.S. embassy in Cairo tweeted, "This morning's condemnation (issued before our protests began) still stands. [101] Romney's campaign cried foul and Romney personally demanded an apology which was refused by the Obama campaign. [68] He showed income over that period of $42.5 million. All rights reserved. "[32] This was hailed in the media as "an impressive one day total. [29][30] [274] Instant polls by Public Policy Polling, CNN, and CBS showed that more viewers felt Obama had won the debate than felt that Romney had. [234], During the Vice Presidential Debate, after Joe Biden criticized Romney's comments, Ryan responded, "With respect to that quote, I think the vice president very well knows that sometimes the words don't come out of your mouth the right way", referring to Biden's reputation for gaffes. [27], Despite his preparations, Romney remained unconvinced on whether to run again. [97] According to Bain, Romney played no active role despite his name being on the required filings. Password requirements: 6 to 30 characters long; ASCII characters only (characters found on a standard US keyboard); must contain at least 4 different symbols; [39] On June 1, 2008, Silver published a two-page op-ed in the New York Post outlining the rationale underlying his focus on the statistical aspects of politics. And if there's anything that goes hand in glove with baseball, it's numbers, another of Silver's childhood interests ("It's always more interesting to apply it to batting averages than algebra class")". [106][107], In July 2012, Romney undertook an international trip as the presumptive nominee of the Republican party, visiting the United Kingdom, Israel, and Poland to meet heads of state, and also to raise funds. Hourly weather forecast in Michigan for the next 15 days: temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, rain, snow, wind, humidity, pressure, fog, sun, thunder, uv index. [116], In early June he began to cross-post his daily "Today's Polls" updates on "The Plank" in The New Republic. [169] Romney's remarks were widely criticized by media sources regarding the course of events and by political commentators for leaving Romney open to the appearance of seeking to gain personal political advantage from a national tragedy. Former governor of Utah Mike Leavitt was selected in June 2012 by Romney to lead the planning for the project, which included a "200-day plan"[280][281] outlining the legislative agenda of the first 200 days of a Romney administration. Nate Silver, "The Most Livable Neighborhoods in New York: A Quantitative Index of the 50 Most Satisfying Places to Live". "[165] In her initial remarks to the press, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated, "I condemn in the strongest terms the attack on our mission in Benghazi today. There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me because they want to give something back. [40] Obama fared better among small-value donors, with almost half (43%) of his donations at $200 or less, compared to only 10% of Romney's. [citation needed], Silver is openly gay. ", "Maine GOP head: Romney still winner after recount of caucuses", "GOP Candidates to Appear for Final Debate before Super Tuesday", "Michigan Republican Presidential Nominating Process", "3 GOP hopefuls each claim Super Tuesday wins", "5 Things the Early Polls Tell Us about the Obama-Romney Matchup", "Battleground Poll: Obama Leads Romney in Florida, Ohio", "Republican National Committee Backs Romney", "GOP uses association with Chicago against Obama; 'Chicago-style politics' enters lexicon of presidential campaign", "Obama Tactic: Jab Congress To Hurt Rivals", "Republican delegates nominate Mitt Romney", "Republicans nominate Romney at storm-hit convention", "Both Campaigns Seize on Romney's Years at Bain", "Obama ad attacks Romney Bain Capital record", "Mitt Romney stayed at Bain 3 years longer than he stated: Firm's 2002 filings identify him as CEO, though he said he left in 1999", "Why Mitt Romney's end date at his buyout firm matters:", "Romney Seeks Obama Apology for Bain Attacks", "Mitt Romney's Own 2002 Testimony Undermines Bain Departure Claim", "Romney's Bain Years: New Evidence, Same Conclusion", "Mitt Romney and his departure from Bain", "Mitt Romney Defends Bain Record: GOP presidential candidate combats allegations about record at Bain Capital", "No Apologies: Obama Campaign Continues Attacks on Romney", Bill Clinton criticizes Obama's Bain attacks, praises Romney's sterling business career', Clinton: Romney had a Sterling Business Career, "Bill Clinton says Mitt Romney as president would be 'calamitous', "Bill Clinton: Mitt Romney White House would be 'calamitous', "US financiers to meet in London for Mitt Romney fundraiser", "Mitt Romney to meet David Cameron during London visit | ITV News", "Romney hails US-Polish ties during visit to Warsaw", "Mitt Romney's Olympics blunder stuns No 10 and hands gift to Obama", "Romney Drops The Torch In London: Policy Trip Becomes Diplomatic Obstacle", Gaffe Olympics: Romney rankles Brits, Cameron also offends, "Romney stirs Olympic tiff as European tour begins", "Iran talk dominates Romney agenda in Jerusalem", "Mitt Romney: United States Has 'Solemn Duty' To Block Nuclear Iran", "Romney: Deeply moving to be in Jerusalem, Israel's capital", "Romney's pledge to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem", "Romney says Jerusalem is Israel's capital, vows to move embassy", "Palestinian groups slam Romney remark on J'lem", "Mitt Romney: Israelis richer than Palestinians because of 'hand of providence', "Mitt Romney 'providence' comments in Israel outrage Palestinians", "Text of Romney's Remarks About Culture and Israel", "Embajada de Mxico rechaza comentarios de Romney", "Mexican officials react after Romney disses Mexico's economy", "Mitt Romney Praises Poland's 'Economic Liberty', "In Poland, Romney heralds economic freedom", "Romney wraps up overseas tour amid tensions with media", "Mitt Romney aide in new 'kiss my ass' gaffe", "Romney Lauds Poland as an Economic Model", "In Poland, Romney Gets Endorsed by Lech Walesa", "Mitt Romney Addresses NAACP Convention in Houston", "Mitt Romney Addresses 103rd NAACP Annual Convention in Houston | Press Room", "NAACP crowd boos Romney for vowing to repeal health reform First Read", "Romney booed at NAACP Political Hotsheet", "Obama's advisers considered replacing Biden with Clinton, according to book", "From Boston to Janesville By Robert Costa The Corner National Review Online", "Breaking: Mitt Romney announcing VP pick at the USS Wisconsin", "Mitt Romney to announce his VP pick on Saturday ABC News", "Romney to Announce Vice-Presidential Choice Saturday", "Weekly Standard: It's looking like Ryan", Ryan joins host of Wisconsin politicians in U.S. limelight, Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event in Roanoke, Virginia | The White House, "Obama's 'You didn't build that' problem", "Putting Mitt Romney's attacks on 'You didn't build that' to the Truth-O-Meter", "Romney, Obama dig in over 'you didn't build that' furor", "Republicans pouncing on Obama's 'you didn't build that' remark", "Remarks by the President at a Campaign Event in Roanoke, Virginia | The White House", "Romney Camp Continues 'You Didn't Build That' Attacks with Swing State Events", "Romney Doubles Down On "You Didn't Build That" With New Website", "Romney's son plugs 'Built By Us' merchandise jabbing at Obama remark", "Romney's bounce from convention looks short-lived: Reuters/Ipsos poll", "Timeline on Egypt and Libya undercuts Romney attack on Obama", "What they said, before and after the attack in Libya", "Politicizing the U.S. embassy attack: Missteps, criticism abound", "A challenger's criticism is furiously returned", "The Romney campaign's repeated errors on the Cairo embassy statement", "Democrats say new Romney ad distorts Obama's words", "Deceptive campaign ads hint at year of mudslinging", "Mitt Romney ad charges Obama said, 'If we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose', Reminders of Romneys Comments, From the Obama Camp, "Romney's attacks on Obama and welfare deemed false by fact checkers", "Why Romney keeps lying about Obama and welfare The Plum Line", "Mitt Romney says Barack Obama's plan for welfare reform: "They just send you your check. [243], The video also showed Romney expressing doubt over whether the Palestinians were fully invested in working toward the success of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Julie Rehmeyer, "Scooping the Political Pollsters". [240][241][242] Obama had led 50%48% on election night, but the results edged toward 51%47% as counting continued over the following weeks. [75], Michigan and Arizona held their presidential primaries on Tuesday, February 28, and allocated 29 and 30 Republican delegates, respectively. He spoke of government including government-funded education, infrastructure and research assisting businesses to make what he called "this unbelievable American system that we have." I'm always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. FiveThirtyEight argued it projected a much higher chance (29%) of Donald Trump winning the presidency than other modelers,[95] a projection which was criticized days before the election by Ryan Grim of The Huffington Post as "unskewing" too much in favor of Trump.[97]. It was 1984, the year the Detroit Tigers won the World Series. [214], MSNBC anchor Andrea Mitchell showed an edited video clip of Romney at a rally in Pennsylvania. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36. called the 2012 presidential election the first real social media election, and the number of memes it engendered reflects that. [118] He made no public promise that he would attack Iran's nuclear facilities if elected, but he reiterated that no option should be off the table in seeking to end Iran's nuclear program, although he hoped that diplomatic measures and economic sanctions would be successful. [49] He also tried his luck in the 2009 World Series of Poker.[50]. [70], As a CNET reporter wrote on election eve, "Even though Silver launched the site as recently as March, its straightforward approach, daring predictions, and short but impressive track record has put it on the map of political sites to follow. [73], Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign signed off on a proposal to share all of its private polling with Silver. Josh Putnam, "The Electoral College Map (11/6/12): Election Day", Swing states in the 2012 election were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. [249][254] The radio ad also said that the other auto manufacturer that had received government assistance during the auto manufacturer crisis, GM, was moving 15,000 American jobs to China. [164] This was followed by a larger bounce in Obama's favor after the Democratic convention. And I mean the president starts off with 48, 49 he starts off with a huge number. Andrew Romano, "Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw". [15] The book has been translated into eleven languages: Chinese (separate editions in traditional and simplified characters), Czech, Finnish, German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, and Spanish. Nate Silver, "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly". So to do that, I'm going to eliminate every non-essential, expensive program I can find. After Romney won the April 24 Delaware primary, Gingrich dropped out on May 2 in a move that was seen as an end to the nomination contest and resulted in the Republican Party declaring Romney the presumptive nominee. "The president believes in what I've described as a government-centered society, where government plays a larger and larger role, provides for more and more of the needs of individuals. [217] The magazine learned of the video from James Earl Carter IV, a Democratic opposition researcher (and a grandson of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter), who found the video online and got the videographer in touch with a writer at the magazine. [119] Romney called Jerusalem the capital of Israel,[119] and later said that he would plan to move the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, but would decide the timing of the move in consultation with the government of Israel. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.) [91], Romney's record at Bain Capital and Bain's investments were a prominent issue, with Romney arguing his tenure at Bain demonstrated management and leadership skills that created thousands of jobs. A companion article on his FiveThirtyEight blog, "The Fundamentals Now Favor Obama", explained how the model and the facts on the ground had changed between November and February. Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately. They gave almost $4 million to charity, but only claimed $2.25 million in deductions in order to maintain his campaign pledge to pay at least 13% of his income in federal taxes. "[183] Following the incident the Ohio Art Company saw a 30% increase in sales of Etch A Sketches. [249][251] He also said that not only would Jeep production lines remain in operation in the U.S. but Chrysler would be investing $500 million to expand production at the Toledo, Ohio Jeep plant.[249]. [28], Between 2003 and 2009, Silver co-authored the Baseball Prospectus annual book of Major League Baseball forecasts,[29] as well as other books, including Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning,[30] Baseball Between the Numbers,[31] and It Ain't Over 'til It's Over: The Baseball Prospectus Pennant Race Book. [144] A vet of each candidate was conducted at a high level of secrecy and dubbed "Project Goldfish". PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) is a statistical system that projects the future performance of hitters and pitchers. After wins in California and several smaller states on June 5, Romney exceeded 1144 pledged delegates, giving him absolute certainty of the nomination and making the June 26th Utah Primary, the last contest of the cycle, purely symbolic. Once this occurs, content will no longer be posted at FiveThirtyEight.com on an ongoing basis, and the blog will re-direct to the new URL. In spite of the denials by the auto manufacturer, the Romney campaign subsequently began airing a new radio ad in Ohio that repeated the false claim that Jeep would be cutting Ohio jobs in order to expand into China. [154][155] The Republican National Committee released a web ad with the full text of what Obama said titled, "The More Context You Get, The Worse It Sounds."[156]. [13] Unless you stand down, why, we're going to let off a dirty bomb." [235] President Obama stated in an interview with David Letterman, "My expectation is if you want to be president, you've got to work for everybody, not just for some". (As The Final Votes Come In)", "Romney says Obama won election with promise of 'gifts' for key groups, Jindal disagrees", "At controversial fundraiser, Romney says Middle East peace is difficult", "Mitt Romney secret video reveals views on Middle East", "Opinion: Romney Roots For Foreign Policy Crisis CBS Chicago", "SECRET VIDEO: On Israel, Romney Trashes Two-State Solution", "Romney distorts facts on Jeep, auto bailout", "Mitt Romney says Obama's Chrysler deal undermined U.S. workers", "4 Pinocchio's for Mitt Romney's misleading ad on Chrysler and China", "Fiat says Jeep output may return to China as demand rises", "GM and Chrysler rebut Romney auto bailout claims", "GM calls latest Romney auto ad 'politics at its cynical worst', "Lie of the Year: the Romney campaign's ad on Jeeps made in China", "Jeep Cherokee Will be Built in China This Year, Two New Models to Follow", "Fiat Chrysler begins Jeep Renegade production in China", "How auto industry towns are faring a decade after the bailout", "Presidential Debate Transcript: Denver, Colo.", "Oct. 9: Romney erases Obama's convention bounce in forecast", "Scott Pelley: 'Most Rancorous Presidential Debate Ever', "Obama, Romney answer audience's questions in town hall debate", "Analysis: Romney whiffs on some easy pitches", "CBS snap poll: Obama edges Romney in second debate", "Obama gets the edge over Romney in a bruising debate", "Voters say Obama beat Romney in second debate: Reuters/Ipsos poll", "China Denies Currency Manipulation Claims", "Obama, Romney go on attack in final debate", "Obama and Romney clash over foreign policy in final presidential debate", "Debate impressions: A reversal in body language? [110], The book describes methods of mathematical model-building using probability and statistics. ), By Nathaniel Rakich, Maya Sweedler and Julia Wolfe, When To Expect The Results In Every State. [3] In April 2009, he appeared as an analyst on ESPN's Baseball Tonight. But judging from what I saw of him this morning, Nate is a grounded guy who admits as much in his book. It is designed primarily for two users: fans interested in fantasy baseball, and professionals in the baseball business trying to predict the performance and valuation of major league players. This decision made Ryan the major parties' first-ever vice-presidential candidate from Wisconsin. Financial Independence. Romney was commenting on his efficient experience at Wawa's to highlight his belief that the private sector is often more efficient than government, a point that was not evident without the full context of his remarks. [69][70], On January 31 Romney won the 2012 Florida primary with 46% of the vote. Let's set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. He filed his organization with the Federal Elections Commission as an exploratory committee and announced the organization in a video message on April 11, 2011. "[165] Hours later, U.S. diplomatic missions in Cairo, Egypt and Benghazi, Libya were attacked. [74] Romney was confirmed to have won following the recount. But they did not build this business. To put all these numbers in context, check out our coverage and subscribe to the, No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Of the 24 foreign policy advisors, 17 served in the Bush-Cheney administration.[45]. The New York Times public editor Margaret Sullivan, while defending Silver's analysis, characterized the wager as "a bad idea" as it gave the appearance of a partisan motive for Silver, and "inappropriate" for someone perceived as a Times journalist (although Silver was not a member of the newspaper's staff).[104][105]. See My Options Sign Up [15] Romney received 60,933,500 votes, or 47.2% of the total votes cast, winning 24 states and 206 electoral votes. [36][37], For the entire second quarter, the campaign expected to raise only about $20 million, less than the $44 million raised in that period in 2007 but still more than any of the other Republican candidates. 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Both in summary tables and in four [ years ], Silver forecast the winner each. Silver published the first iteration of his Near-Flawless forecasts '' winning is not zero.
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