GED only includes violence against civilians that results in at least one fatality, while ACLED also includes violence against civilians that does not result in fatalities (Eck 2012, 127). We claim this choice is largely determined by the capacity of the rebel groups to control territory. Buhaug Halvard, Gates Scott, Lujala Pivi. Houthis controls the government of Yemen, Designated a terrorist organization by the, Parts of north-eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Valentino Benjamin, Huth Paul, Balch-Lindsay Dylan. Contents 1Groups that control territory 2Other groups 2.1International 2.2Afghanistan 2.3Algeria 2.4Angola It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition. Figure 6 presents a similar subset analysis, this time dividing observations by whether they are above or below the median distance to the capital of Freetown. Second, selecting the RUF follows a least likely crucial case design (Levy 2008). Sierra Leone's civil war began in 1991 when the RUF entered Sierra Leone from Liberia and recruited the country's aggrieved youth to overthrow the government. The space and time combinations where we do not observe a statistically significant difference between territorial conquest and regular battles are not necessarily peaceful. Open, armed, and organized resistance to a constituted government. We observe a similar pattern to our main analysis in the subset of events below the median distance to the nearest diamond mine inFigure5a, finding a statistically significant and positive effect of territorial capture on civilian targeting despite the reduction in the number of RUF civilian targeting events from 814 to 446. We similarly exclude defence units (e.g., the Kamajors and various militias) as they are nominally fighting in support of existing political institutions. The four-kilometer and thirty-day window inFigure 4 represents an aggregation procedure that includes all civilian targeting events up to four kilometers from a battle and up to thirty days after the battle. Second, rebels face an identification problem (Kalyvas 2006): who is a friend and who is an enemy? 2014) on insurgent groups.When rebels control lootable resources or have a foreign backer, it reduces their reliance on civilians for support and resources over the long term. 2018) in R (R Core Team 2018). The Government of Colombia states: "All the violent groups in Colombia are terrorists": Kurth Cronin, Audrey; Huda Aden, Adam Frost, and Benjamin Jones (February 6, 2004). List of rebel groups that control territory; List of guerrilla . Our analysis identifies a positive treatment effect of territorial capture on civilian targeting within spatiotemporal windows that are up to thirty to thirty-five days and two to four kilometers after a battle. First, the RUF was a highly violent rebel organization that gained large amounts of territory during the conflict, which provides sufficient data to quantitatively examine how rebel governance unfolds after territorial seizure.4 As indicated above, this large amount of civilian victimization makes the RUF an extreme case on the dependent variable. While GED may potentially exclude important events due to these criteria, ACLED in theory includes these events but cannot link them to specific conflicts (Eck 2012, 135). Norton. This is a list of active rebel groups around the world. Conversely, the sample above the median inFigure 5b has no statistically significant relationship between territorial capture and civilian targeting. This pattern holds for both finer and more coarse spatiotemporal windows. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. In the Sierra Leone civil war, the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) controlled over half of the country in 1998 and could even advance into the capital of Freetown ().While conflict studies increasingly investigate how rebels govern during conflict (Mampilly 2012; Arjona 2016b, 2017 . This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational, or international. In contrast to extensive rebel rulers, the RUF's interaction with civilians was minimal and concentrated on imposing basic compliance. The disparity in event counts between datasets can partly be explained by the different actor typologies they employ. A Conjoint Experiment on Social Networks, Violence, and Forced Migration Decisions in Eastern and Southeastern Turkey, Stabilizing Authoritarian Rule: The Role of International Organizations, About the International Studies Association, Research on Civilian Targeting by Rebel Governors, Scrutinizing the Logic of Violence after Conquest, The RUF as an Extreme Case of Rebel Violence, https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright 2023 International Studies Association. In contrast, ACLED records sixteen different non-state actors during our sample period. In this section, we provide background information on the civil war and justify our case selection. The fact that the four-kilometer and twenty-five-day window is not significant means that the extra events that occur during the subsequent five days are necessary to observe a statistically significant difference between treatment and control areas. A "rebel group" is defined here as a polity that uses armed conflict in opposition to established government (or governments) for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish, maintain, or to gain independence. Therefore, we expect that we are less likely to find strong evidence for a peak of violence after territorial takeover in the case of Sierra Leone's RUF. This analysis contributes to the literature on rebel governance and civilian targeting in civil conflict. These analyses allow us to test whether rebels behave differently after capturing territory in different regions of the country. Only focusing on lethal violence against civilians may be misleading as this excludes crucial incidents of nonlethal civilian victimization (Gutirrez-Sann and Wood 2017). It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition. Rebel groups unsupported by a direct foreign military presence now hold only the northwestern area that comprises most of Idlib province and adjacent small parts of Latakia, Hama and Aleppo provinces. Manbij is under the control of a local militia that is affiliated with the SDF, and is the subject of Turkish-U.S. talks. Planned nonfatal shows of force can escalate to massacres after unexpected resistance or intended slaughter can be averted by miscommunication within rebel ranks, so separating them could assign intentionality where none existed. The combination of ACLED and GED events with meltt is key to the findings of our analysis. A "rebel group" is defined here as a political group seeking change through armed conflict in opposition to an established government or governments. 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Christian Oswald and others, Under the Roof of Rebels: Civilian Targeting After Territorial Takeover in Sierra Leone, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 64, Issue 2, June 2020, Pages 295305, https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa009. It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition. Her research focuses on internal displacement, civilian victimization, and territorial control in civil wars. The group attempted to develop a system of governance that regulated social life in areas under their control following the motto arms to the people, power to the people, and wealth to the people (Bangura 2000; Mkandawire 2002). A "rebel group" is defined here as a political group that uses armed conflict in opposition to established government or governments for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish or maintain independence. The results support this argument;Figure 6a shows no statistically significant increase in civilian targeting after territorial takeover in areas closer to the capital, whileFigure 6b displays a relationship between territorial capture and civilian targeting similar to our main analysis inFigure 4, despite the reduction in RUF civilian targeting events from 814 to 467. This research note shows that transition periods after rebels gain territorial control are remarkably violent for civilians. Other rebel groups are listed by the states within which they operate. See the Supplementary Information for a complete list of covariate sources, the distribution of the matching covariates, and pre- and post-matching balance statistics. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. Rebel groups seized territory from Syrian government forces in June 2011, although their hold was tenuous until 2012. It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition. Nonetheless, the group did not establish sophisticated administrative institutions or widely provide public goods. Control of the country has become increasingly fractured: Rebels have gained . Combining these datasets is a critical step for our quantitative analysis of targeting dynamics in the Sierra Leone civil war as we aim to go beyond the qualitative evidence that has been studied previously. Conflict event datasets may have different foci in their efforts to collect data, as discussed earlier, so integration is crucial when variables of interest are present in several datasets. Ce contrle peut tre contest et peut tre temporaire ou fluctuant, notamment dans le cadre d'un conflit. We also weight our difference-in-differences regression to account for the fact that control events outnumber treatment events in our sample.10. This explains why ACLED has more observations than GED for our period under study and why the number of duplicate events is comparatively small. The grouping of four different significant spatiotemporal windows in the left of the figure suggests that this positive relationship is present in the data generating process and is not an artifact of our specification.9, Point estimates and uncertainty of the effect of territorial takeover on civilian targeting. We identify temporally more violent dynamics in rebel conquered territory compared to contested areas that may be indicative of rebel efforts to violently establish governance in their territory. Given the well-known reliance of the RUF on alluvial diamond mining for funding, this pattern suggests that the RUF used violence to establish control in areas where civilians could be used as labor to mine diamonds. Arjona (2016b) uses the term aliocracy to describe this reduced form of rebel governance. Third, the objectives of the movement are important. Reliance on diamonds also explains the RUF's violent behavior towards civilians (Voors et al. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Gaining control over a specific territory allows armed groups to gradually move from indiscriminate to more selective forms of violence against the population. Others question the deterministic nature of rebel governance and call for a more nuanced view that looks beyond the dualistic nexus of state/insurgent actors (Wood 2003; Chojnacki and Branovic 2011; Risse 2011; Staniland 2012; Gates 2017). It also took the area around Manbij, west of the Euphrates, in 2016. This research was supported by funding from the Volkswagen Foundation, grant no. The SDF now controls almost all the quarter of Syria east of the Euphrates, including the former I.S. GED contains 318 events in the same period, while eighteen events are duplicates in the two event datasets, yielding unique 1,304 instances of civilian victimization. His research focuses on different forms of violence before, during, and after civil conflict. Abstract This article analyzes the choice of tactics by armed groups. Turkey has also brought several of the other major rebel groups together into a rival alliance, the National Liberation Front. This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational, or international. Theoretical expectations of violence against civilians after rebels capture territory, from a governance perspective. A circle around each event is then chosen to count the previous and subsequent attacks against civilians in this location during a selected time window (in days). This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational, or international. MWA generates a balanced sample of treatment and control events by matching events along local geographic covariates. If rebels follow an ideological agenda or strive for independence, they will be more concerned about support from the population. The significant increase is observable at two and four kilometers, with two more windows at eight kilometers. To test this argument, we draw on methodological advances in integrating event data and combine multiple datasets to study patterns of violence perpetrated by the Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone from 1997 to 2001. Because the above list of rebel groups controlling territory may be incomplete, this list may still contain some groups which do control territory. Aoun Sahi and Mark Magnier (October 21, 2013). The RUF is known for extensive and cruel violence against civilians, but evidence for attempts to govern local populations is limited beyond the group's interest in firmly controlling civilians in diamond-rich areas in order to exploit their labor to extract resources. Even if the RUF only fought a battle and could not gain territory, we are likely to observe some rise in civilian targeting in the immediate days after the fight in control areas. It does not mean that violence only occurs four kilometers away and thirty days after a takeover. This means that subgroups such as the Superman Faction of the RUF are included, but smaller groups such as the West Side Boys Militia or Gbethis Militia are excluded from GED. A separate analysis using only civilian targeting events from ACLED fails to find any significant effects.12 With only 1.38 percent of events overlapping between the two datasets according to our ten-day and ten-kilometer rule, our analysis highlights the need to integrate different datasets for more comprehensive analysis of micro-level conflict dynamics. \end{equation}$$, Institutions, Civilian Resistance, and Wartime Social Order: A Process-Driven Natural Experiment in the Colombian Civil War, Civilian Cooperation and Non-Cooperation with Non-State Armed Groups: The Centrality of Obedience and Resistance, Strategic Policy Failure and Governance in Sierra Leone, War and Local Collective Action in Sierra Leone, Introducing the Sierra Leone Local Source - Location Event Dataset (SL-LED), Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict, New Modes of Security: The Violent Making and Unmaking of Governance in War-Torn Areas of Limited Statehood, Governance Without a State? This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational, or international. This research note examines patterns of violence against civilians following territorial conquest by rebel groups. Groups that "control territory" are defined as any group that hold any populated or inhabited town, city, village, or defined area that is under the direct administration or military control of the group. In contrast, when the RUF captured territory far from diamond mines, it appears that it did not increase its levels of civilian targeting afterwards, indicating that the RUF's interest in establishing governance in these territories was lower. Rebels that do not have institutions to regulate civilians might require violence in newly conquered territory until they are able to establish stable governance. Instagram: owlappsnet, Owlapps.net - since 2012 - Les chouettes applications du hibou. The merged data contain 814 events of RUF violence in Sierra Leone.6. While fatal and nonfatal violence are different, they can both serve to cow civilians into acquiescing to rebel demands. Finding evidence for an increase in violence after territorial takeover would suggest that even the RUF as limited rebel rulers used increased violence as a means to alter the political behavior of the population. Groups that are not able to liberate territory remain underground and have to rely mainly on bombings. Text is available under a CC BY-SA 4.0 International License; additional terms may apply. Adopting a minimalist definition, de facto control over civilians or rebel governance here refers to the establishment of behavioral guidelines for civilians that ensure compliance with rebel rulers in exchange for the provision of security.1 We argue that the capacity to manage civilian affairs nonviolently is often lacking immediately after territorial takeover. Two reasons justify the selection of the RUF as a case study to investigate initial violence against civilians after territorial takeover. Wood Reed M., Kathman Jacob D., Gent Stephen E.. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. Christian Oswald is a PhD candidate at Trinity College Dublin. Conversely, if they are solely interested in looting valuable resources, they are less dependent on the active support of civilians (Mampilly 2012; Huang 2016; Stewart 2018). This name generator will generate 10 random rebellion names. Figure 1 displays our theoretical expectation of violence against civilians from a rebel governance perspective. Our solution is to use areas where battles with no transfer of territory took place to establish a baseline level of civilian targeting that occurs in conflicts. The RUF in Sierra Leone's civil war was unchallenged in the chiefdoms of Kailahun District in 1992 but continued to engage in widespread civilian victimization (NPWJ 2004, 16). First, rebel groups initial capacities are concentrated on fighting the government. By combining event datasets and using matched wake analysis, we show that the RUF in Sierra Leone resorted to more violence against civilians in recently captured territory compared to areas without territorial takeover. Recent research on rebel governance reveals more details on the question of how rebels interact with civilian populations. Les groupes qui contrlent un territoire comprennent tout groupe dtenant une ville, un village ou une zone dfinie, peuple ou habite, laquelle se trouve sous l'administration directe ou le contrle militaire dudit groupe. Taliban controlled territory is also shared with Uzbek Islamists. The information asymmetry regarding loyalties in the local population and in local institutions drives armed groups to use violence against civilians. CO, MS, SW, and RW all contributed equally to this article. Accordingly, we cannot be sure that our conclusions are not an artifact of the specific spatiotemporal aggregation rule we have chosen. \begin{array}{*{20}{r}} {\ {\eta _{post}} = {\beta _0}\ + {\beta _1}{\eta _{pre}} + {\beta _2}{\rm{treatment}} + \epsilon } \end{array} ISBN. In order to establish long-term control over territory, rebels need the cooperation of civilians living in that area to maintain their legitimacy (Arjona 2016b). If civilians push back against the establishment of new institutions in rebel territory (Gutirrez-Sann and Wood 2014; Arjona 2015), insurgents may use violence at the beginning of their rule to thwart resistance and signal firm control until the local population accepts the new rulers as expected by Kalyvas. This name generator contains a wide range of names fit for a wide range of rebels . Previous research has shown that for Africa between 1997 and 2010, as much as 20 percent of violent events are not attributable to specific named groups in ACLED data. We argue that the initial steps towards rebel governance during civil wars are a violent process that runs counter to the incentives of rebels to use less violence in areas of established control. The dominant faction is Tahrir al-Sham, a jihadist alliance spearheaded by al Qaedas former official Syrian affiliate, previously known as the Nusra Front, and deemed a terrorist group by the United Nations, United States and Turkey. The fact that there is not a significant difference between treatment and control areas without counting events up to thirty days after a battle is fought is consistent with the idea that effects diverge between treatment and control areas as soon as rebels deliberately try to control the civilian population and govern violently. The results also fit Johnstons comparative case study of rebel groups organizational structure, which shows that the RUF's rapid territorial expansion required them to delegate responsibilities to local rebel sub-units that operated relatively independently (2008). (a) Below median distance. The most influential theoretical contribution was made by Kalyvas (2006) in The Logic of Violence in Civil War. But it has shown an ability to stage sudden guerrilla attacks despite losing its so-called caliphate. n. 1. a. They cannot instantly identify local supporters or potential dissidents in the population (Arjona 2016a). Kalyvas assertively claims that gaining control over an area brings collaboration (Kalyvas 2006, 119). A Comparison of UCDP GED and ACLED Conflict Events Datasets, One-Sided Violence Against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data, Weakening the Enemy: A Disaggregated Study of Violence Against Civilians in Africa, Membership Matters: Coerced Recruits and Rebel Allegiance, Ideology in Civil War: Instrumental Adoption and Beyond, What Should We Mean By Pattern of Political Violence? Similarly, the additional events included in the four-kilometer and forty-day window are sufficiently inconsistent with the pattern of increased violence near captured territory in the four kilometer and thirty-five-day window that there is no longer a statistically significant difference between treatment and control areas. This page was last edited on 24 May 2023, at 20:10. We do not argue that rebels will rely on indiscriminate violence throughout their rule and in all rebel-held territory. Successful insurgents in civil wars frequently capture far-reaching territory from the government. This is a list of active rebel groups around the world. Both datasets independently record events of deliberate targeting of civilians that we count as dependent events for our analysis. Parts of northern and northeastern Syria (See, Ambiguous relationship with Syrian government. GED does not categorize battles accordingly so GED reported battles are not used to identify treatment and control events. This increase in targeting might be due to the fact that civilians die as collateral damage during the time that RUF fighting units retreat from the territory in question, which could explain the lack of significant differences in civilian targeting in shorter temporal windows. Such control may be contested and might be temporary or fluctuating, especially under the circumstance of conflict. A "rebel group" is defined here as a polity that uses armed conflict in opposition to established government (or governments) for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish, maintain, or to gain independence. Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. We empirically test the dynamics of violence towards civilians with a novel combination of the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and the UCDP Geo-referenced Event Dataset (GED) in the Sierra Leone civil war. capital of Raqqa and some of the countrys biggest oil fields. 11. Studies on rebel governance have identified different factors that explain when and why rebels dedicate efforts towards governing peacefully and those that explain civilian cooperation with non-state armed groups. A difference-in-differences design estimates the average treatment effect |${\beta _2}$|, that is the effect of territorial takeover on the post-treatment count of attacks against civilians |${\eta _{post}}$|. 1) IDLIB Rebel groups unsupported by a direct foreign military presence now hold only the northwestern area that comprises most of Idlib province and adjacent small parts of Latakia, Hama and. This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational, or international. In these cases, Kalyvas (2006) argument that violence generates civilian backlash and is counterproductive for rebels might be more immediately applicable. We seek to measure whether the frequency of dependent events of civilian targeting increases in recently captured territory, but to do so we require some baseline for comparison. In response, we investigate how rebel rule evolves over time, focusing on the period immediately after territorial takeover. 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Rebel groups then respond with violence to enforce their new social order because they lack the knowledge or capabilities required to govern peacefully. Insurgents need to identify which local institutionsoften embedded in customary structuresthey are able to co-opt and which ones they need to dismantle and replace. It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition. By statistically matching battle-prone territory with territory that the RUF violently captured, we control for the fact that battles without territorial transfer also affect the probability of violence against civilians. In the long term, rebel groups benefit from peaceful interactions with civilians due to increased willingness to provide food, shelter, and information. The RUF twice entered the capital of Freetown during the conflict, in May 1997 and January 1999. A "rebel group" is defined here as a political group that uses armed conflictin opposition to established government or governments for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish or maintain independence. Le prsent article liste les groupes rebelles actifs qui contrlant des territoires, qu'ils soient au niveau sous-national, transnational, ou international. The more control a group has over a territory, the easier it is to establish order, to engage with civilians nonviolently, and to deter other armed groups (Kalyvas 2006; Arjona, Kasfir, and Mampilly 2015). Melanie Sauter is a PhD researcher at the European University Institute in Florence. Author's note : We thank Karsten Donnay, Sebastian Schutte, Amelia Hoover Green, Elias Dinas, Thomas Chadefaux, Nils Metternich, and the participants of the Bremen International Graduate School of Social Sciences 2018 Summer School in Computational Social Science, the UNC International Relations Brown Bag workshop, the International Relations Working Group at the European University Institute, the Swiss Political Science Association Annual Conference, and the Conflict Research Society Annual Conference 2019, as well as three anonymous reviewers, for their helpful comments and feedback. The intensity of the shading represents the point estimate of the treatment effect, with insignificant effects covered by a diagonal overlay. Given that these actors demanded the return of the Kabbah government, the AFRC did not achieve an official status as a government, and the RUF retained its structure as a rebel group as it continued to fight. Despite the fact that contestation with other conflict actors decreases when rebels start to establish their rule, we expect civilian targeting to peak after territorial takeover in the vicinity of areas that were newly captured. This leads us to our hypothesis: H:Violence against civilians initially increases after territorial takeover in the vicinity of the area that rebel groups violently seize. In small temporal aggregations, such as the four-kilometer and twenty-five-day window, treatment and control areas are both likely to see some increase in civilian casualties due to residual violence from the initial conquest or battle. The arbitrary nature of these attacks served to create an atmosphere of complete terror (HRW 1999). A "rebel group" is defined here as a polity that uses armed conflict in opposition to established government for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish, maintain, or to gain independence. They include more than half a million people from other rebel enclaves who chose to be bussed there under surrender deals in recent years rather than go back under Assads rule. It now holds a small strip along the northern bank of the Euphrates near the Iraqi border and a couple of patches of desert in central Syria. Groups that "control territory" are defined as any group that hold any populated or inhabited town, city, village, or defined area that is under the direct administration or military control of the group. This is a list of active rebel groups around the world whose domains may be subnational, transnational or international. In particular, we respond to Kalyvas (2006) logic of violence, which states that civilian targeting is a strategy of armed actors to deter civilian defection and enforce compliance. In 1997, the RUF joined the Sierra Leone Army in a military coup against the Kabbah government, forming the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) junta that was then driven out of the capital by the Nigerian-led Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) forces in March 1998.3 After intense fighting, a peace agreement in 1999, and the deployment of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping troops, the civil war eventually ended in January 2002 (Bangura 2000). In addition, the Kamajors, a grassroots militia force, emerged as civilians aimed to protect themselves against the violent attacks by combatants. Levels of violence against civilians did not decline despite Kalyvas prediction that increased control leads to decreased civilian targeting. BEIRUT, Sep 5 (Reuters) - Early in the conflict, fighting splintered Syria into a complex patchwork of areas held by rival groups, but fighting in recent years has simplified the frontlines and the country is now split into only a few zones of control. Results obtained by splitting the sample into above and below median distance to nearest diamond mine. We analyze only the RUF-perpetrated events. In the remainder of this section, we also present a selection of subset analyses to support our violent governance hypothesis. Ce contrle peut tre contest et peut tre temporaire ou fluctuant, notamment dans le cadre d'un conflit. As Islamic State advanced in 2014, the YPG joined other groups to hold them back, supported by the United States. See the Supplementary Information for these results. Significantly more civilian victimization only occurs in the direct vicinity of the battle where rebels seized territory from the government. Our analysis of the RUF in Sierra Leone relies on a combination of ACLED (Raleigh et al. Effect of RUF territorial capture on subsequent civilian targeting. The government now holds more than half the country, including its most populous areas, the main cities, the coast, the border with Lebanon, and most of the border with Jordan, as well as the central Syrian desert and the main gas fields. To deal with this concern, we use matched wake analysis (MWA), a methodology specifically designed for robust inference in spatiotemporal event data (Schutte and Donnay 2014). Turkey staged incursions into Syria in 2016 and 2018 in support of Syrian rebel groups, building an arc of territory along the border from Afrin in the west, where it meets the rebel zone in Idlib, to the Euphrates in the east. Goodies : Red Bubble Un groupe rebelle est dfini ici comme tant une entit utilisant le conflit arm comme moyen d'action contre le(s) gouvernement(s) tabli(s), pour des raisons telles que la recherche de changements politiques ou l'tablissement, le maintien ou l'obtention de l'indpendance. We encourage researchers to make use of recent advancements in the collection and statistical modeling of event data to introduce more nuance into our theories of violence. Extending the spatial window beyond ten kilometers does not yield any further significant results as conflict dynamics overlap and cancel out effects if space is aggregated to larger units. This substantial increase in data may explain why an analysis of ACLED alone yields a null result. Further, civilian-rebel interactions are prone to unexpected outcomes. This initially leads to more violence against civilians after territorial takeover, and Kalyvas control-based mechanism only sets in after rebels have violently established a minimum level of civilian compliance. This result is in line with qualitative reports of the RUF committing indiscriminate violence against civilians in areas it controlled, such as reports that [w]hile there was some targeting of particular groups,the vast majority of atrocities were committed by rebels who chose their victims apparently at random. This is a list of active rebel groups that control territory around the world whose domains may be subnational transnational or international A rebel group is defined here as a polity that uses armed conflict in opposition to established government or governments for reasons such as to seek political change or to establish maintain or to gain independence Groups that control territory are defined as any group that hold any populated or inhabited town city village or defined area that is under the direct administration or military control of the group Such control may be contested and might be temporary or fluctuating especially under the circumstance of conflict It does not include the governments of stable breakaway states or other states with limited recognition List of groups that control territory EditWithin state Rebel group Conflict Controlsince Territory controlled Notes Leader Headquarters Burkina Faso Mali Somalia Yemen Al Qaeda Mali WarSomali Civil WarYemeni Civil War 2006 Parts of Burkina Faso 1 Parts of central and northern Mali 2 Large parts of southern and central Somalia 3 Small parts of Abyan Governorate 4 TBD Tinzaouaten Mali 5 Jilib Somalia 6 Nigeria Boko Haram Boko Haram insurgency 2009 Small parts of Borno Kaduna and Niger States 7 Relocated to Kaduna State after the Battle of Sambisa Forest Bakura Doro Chikun 8 9 Mali Mozambique Nigeria Somalia Islamic State Insurgency in Cabo DelgadoMali WarBoko Haram insurgencySomali Civil War 2015 Large parts of Borno State 10 11 12 Several villages in the Bari region 13 Several villages in the Gao region 14 Parts of Cabo Delgado Province 15 Designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations 16 Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurashi Unknown Cameroon Red Dragon Anglophone Crisis 2019 Several villages in Lebialem department of Southwest Province in Cameroon 17 The Red Dragon militia controlling parts of Lebialem is loyal to the Interim Government of Ambazonia Lekeaka Oliver Unknown Central African Republic Coalition of Patriots for Change 18 19 Central African Republic Civil War 2020 Parts of Central African Republic 18 Coalition of multiple groups including Anti balaka 18 3R and MPC 19 Francois Bozize 18 19 N Djamena Chad 20 Democratic Republic of the Congo Mai Mai Kivu conflict 2003 Parts of northeastern DRC 21 Various groups Various leaders Depending on groupMarch 23 Movement 2012 Parts of North Kivu province 22 Bertrand Bisimwa Nduma Defense of Congo Renouveau 2015 Parts of North Kivu province 23 Shimiray Mwissa Guidon Pinga Mali Azawad Mali War 2012 Parts of northern Mali 24 Bilal Ag Acherif Kidal 25 Ethiopia Oromo Liberation Army OLA insurgency 2018 Parts of west Oromia Region 26 Kumsa Diriba Mozambique Ansar al Sunna Insurgency in Cabo Delgado 2020 Parts of Cabo Delgado Province 27 Considered to be part of ISIS by some 27 28 29 Unknown Siri base near Messalo river 30 Myanmar Kachin Independence Army Internal conflict in Myanmar 2011 Parts of Kachin State 31 Military wing of Kachin Independence Organisation N Ban La Laiza People s Defence Force 2021 Areas across Myanmar 32 Created as opposition to military junta Duwa Lashi La Multiple local headquarters Chin National Defence Force 2021 Parts of Chin State 33 Falam Karen National Liberation Army 1966 Parts of Kayin State 34 35 Military wing of Karen National Union Saw Mutu Say Poe Lay Wah Senegal Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance Casamance conflict 1982 Parts of Casamance region in Senegal 36 Sudan Sudan Revolutionary Front Sudan SRF conflict 2011 Parts of South Kordofan state and Blue Nile state 37 Abdelaziz al Hilu Kauda 38 Syria Tahrir al Sham Syrian civil war 2017 Part of Idlib Governorate in northwest Syria 39 Faction within the Syrian civil war opposed to the Syrian government Abu Mohammad al Julani Idlib 39 Maghaweir al Thowra 2016 Small pocket in the Syrian Desert adjacent to the Jordanian border and the Iraqi border 40 41 Faction within the Syrian civil war opposed to the Syrian government and aligned with the United States Al Tanf 41 Rojava 2012 Territories in the north and east of Syria mostly over the Euphrates River Faction within the Syrian civil war allied to the Syrian government and opposed by Turkey Ilham Ehmed Mansur Selum Qamishli Syrian National Army 2017 Border areas of Northern Syria 42 Faction within the Syrian civil war opposed to the Syrian government and aligned with Turkey Anas al Abdah Azaz 43 Yemen Southern Movement Yemeni Civil War 2017 Some of the territory in South Yemen 44 45 46 Organized in response to various grievances of southern Yemenis It maintains a tenuous peace with the Yemeni government Aidarus al Zoubaidi Aden Houthi movement 2004 Most of former North Yemen including the capital Sana a and parts of South Yemen 47 The Houthis control the Supreme Political Council 48 which is unrecognized by the international community Mahdi al Mashat Sa dahSee also EditList of active rebel groups List of guerrilla movements List of designated terrorist groups List of ongoing armed conflicts Lists of active separatist movements Violent non state actor Compare to sovereign stateReferences Edit State controls just 60 percent of Burkina Faso ECOWAS mediator 18 June 2022 Speaking with the Bad Guys Toward Dialogue with Central Mali s Jihadists PDF 28 May 2019 While the Malian army controls towns and their immediate vicinity the jihadists rule the countryside erecting checkpoints on rural roads and patrolling rivers Osman Jamal 15 June 2022 Inside Al Shabaab Channel4 Retrieved 10 October 2022 Hussien Shurki Yemen separatists seize al Qaeda stronghold in Abyan Pellerin Mathieu November 2019 Armed violence in the Sahara PDF Somalia Al Shabaab Leaders Split Over Funds Control AllAfrica 27 March 2020 Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province PDF DSS Boko Haram relocating from Sambisa forest to Kaduna 15 September 2021 Leaked DSS memo shows fleeing Boko Haram terrorists are moving to Kaduna 15 September 2021 Economics of terrorism in Lake Chad Basin 10 July 2019 Several killed in fight between Boko Haram ISWAP members 20 January 2020 Haruna Abdulkareem 30 June 2022 ISWAP Still Controls Vast Areas of Guzamala In Northeast HumAngle Letter dated 1 November 2019 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee pursuant to resolution 751 1992 concerning Somalia addressed to the President of the Security Council PDF 1 November 2019 p 84 Memier Marc January 2017 AQMI et Al Mourabitoun le djihad sahelien reunifie PDF Etudes de l Ifri in French Institut francais des relations internationales p 54 ISBN 978 2 36567 661 8 Archived PDF from the original on 12 March 2017 Retrieved 28 November 2019 Winning Peace in Mozambique s Embattled North 10 February 2022 Security Council Al Qaida Sanctions Committee Amends Entry United Nations 30 May 2013 Retrieved 12 November 2016 Cameroun Securite au NoSo l etau se resserre autour de Field Marshall ActuCameroun com 14 May 2020 Retrieved 16 May 2020 a b c d CAR says ex president attempting coup as rebels form coalition 19 December 2020 a b c Francois Bozize CAR accuses former president of attempted coup BBC co uk News BBC 19 December 2020 Retrieved 20 December 2020 Francois Bozize et d autres chefs rebelles centrafricains se trouvent a Ndjamena 7 November 2021 1 dead link Al Hadji Kudra Maliro Justin Kabumba 13 June 2022 Congo military accuses Rwanda of invasion rebels seize town Washington Post Retrieved 13 June 2022 NDC R Congo s Contract Militia Which Killed FDLR s Gen Sylvestre Mudacumura 15 May 2020 Mali government seeks to assert control over restive north to send troops to Kidal 7 February 2020 A Tuareg soldier guards the Azawad Movement s headquarters in Kidal northern Mali Yahoo News 5 June 2015 Armed group takes control of towns in Oromia Ethiopia Observer 4 November 2022 Retrieved 20 March 2023 a b Centanni Evan Djukic Djordje 17 August 2020 Islamic State in Mozambique Control Map amp Timeline of the Insurgency PolGeoNow com Political Geography Now Retrieved 18 August 2020 Bowker Tom 25 August 2020 Battle looms in Mozambique over extremists control of port APNews com Associated Press Retrieved 28 August 2020 MacDonald Andrew 24 August 2020 Mozambique Sophistication of Islamic insurgency threatens LNG plans TheAfricaReport com Groupe Jeune Afrique Retrieved 28 August 2020 Cabo Delgado Nao existe Siria 1 e nem Siria 2 19 August 2021 Burma attack breaks Kachin truce near China border BBC 20 January 2013 Retrieved 18 August 2014 The rebels are seeking greater autonomy within Burma for ethnic Kachins who have had de facto control over a part of northern Burma for more than 50 years Myanmar s civilian president claims resistance controls nearly half the country 10 May 2022 Resistance to the Myanmar regime in Chin state a photo essay The Guardian 24 January 2022 Six die in Myanmar Air Strikes on Karen Villages Near the Thai Border Archived from the original on 27 May 2021 Retrieved 2 May 2021 Myanmar army launches air strikes in Karen state group says Reuters 27 March 2021 Archived from the original on 11 May 2021 Retrieved 2 May 2021 WESTWOOD DEALING IN CONFLICT TIMBER March 2020 Sudan Revolutionary Front SRF PDF Human Security Baseline Assessment HSBA for Sudan and South Sudan 4 June 2013 Retrieved 1 December 2014 Corresponding to the SPLM N s dominant role the SRF s locus of control resides in its bastion in Kaoda and the Nuba Mountains South Kordofan Military activity is most prevalent in South Kordofan but extends to Blue Nile and into South Sudan s border states Sudan s PM visits rebel stronghold on peace mission a b Ali Zulfiqar 18 February 2020 Syria Who s in control of Idlib BBC co uk News BBC News Retrieved 19 May 2020 Seligman Lara 2 July 2019 Fears Rise of an ISIS Comeback ForeignPolicy com Graham Holdings Retrieved 19 May 2020 a b Snow Shawn 16 February 2020 Iran backed group launches attack near small garrison in Syria housing American special operators MilitaryTimes com Sightline Media Group Retrieved 19 May 2020 Tsurkov Elizabeth 27 November 2019 Who Are Turkey s Proxy Fighters in Syria NYBooks com The New York Review of Books Retrieved 19 May 2020 Lister Charles 31 October 2017 Turkey s Idlib incursion and the HTS question Understanding the long game in Syria WarOnTheRocks com War on the Rocks Retrieved 3 November 2017 The New Arab 16 May 2017 GCC Aden based Southern Transitional Council doomed to fail alaraby co uk Retrieved 8 June 2017 The New Arab 11 May 2017 Banished Aden governor forms independent South Yemen council alaraby co uk Retrieved 8 June 2017 Saudi Research amp Marketing uk Ltd Thirty Southern Figures Reject Transitional Council in Aden ASHARQ AL AWSAT English english aawsat com Retrieved 8 June 2017 Al Haj Ahmed 2 June 2015 Houthi Rebels Take Over Yemen s Government Huffington Post Archived from the original on 6 February 2015 Retrieved 7 February 2015 Yemen rebels form rival government Qantara de Deutsche Welle 5 October 2016 Retrieved 27 March 2021 Retrieved from https en wikipedia org w index php title List of rebel groups that control territory amp oldid 1156822270, wikipedia, List of rebel groups that control territory, State controls just 60 percent of Burkina Faso: ECOWAS mediator, 18 June 2022, Franois Boziz et d'autres chefs rebelles centrafricains se trouvent Ndjamena, 7 November 2021, Cabo Delgado: No existe Siria 1 e nem Siria 2, 19 August 2021, Myanmar's civilian president claims resistance controls nearly half the country, 10 May 2022, WESTWOOD: DEALING IN CONFLICT TIMBER, March 2020, Sudans PM visits rebel stronghold on peace mission, Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance, Institut franais des relations internationales, Designated a terrorist organization by the, The Red Dragon militia controlling parts of Lebialem is loyal to the, Territories in the north and east of Syria, mostly over the. 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